Team AmericansWith FIFA doing everything in its power to help host South Africa receive a favorable draw and advance to the second round of the World Cup next year, you knew somebody would get the shaft.
And it might just be the United States.
The seedings for the 32-team field were announced Wednesday in preparation for Friday’s draw in Cape Town, and the odds are greater for the United States to be slotted into a tough bracket rather than an easy one.
The Americans were placed in Pot 2, with fellow CONCACAF teams Mexico and Honduras; New Zealand, the lone qualifier from Oceania; and the four Asian teams: Australia, Japan, North Korea and South Korea.
With Asia and Oceania considered the weakest of the six confederations, the U.S. was hoping to be paired with one of those teams. Now that can’t happen, and the result could be ugly.
As host, South Africa is given the A-1 slot and designated a top seed despite being the lowest ranked team in the tournament (No. 86) in the latest FIFA rankings.
Other Pot 1 teams are Brazil, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Germany, Argentina and England.
Pot 3 consists of the other five African teams: Algeria, Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Ghana and Nigeria, and the other South Americans teams: Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay.
Pot 4 includes the remaining European teams: Denmark, France, Greece, Portugal, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia and Switzerland.
Since no confederation other than Europe can play each other in the first round, if a team from a different confederation is drawn with another team from its region into one of the eight, four-team groups on Friday, it will bounce to the next available group (A through H) until it fits in.
Taking all that into consideration, here’s what could await the United States.
The best case scenario: South Africa, Chile, Slovakia or Slovenia.
The worst case scenario: Brazil, Ivory Coast, France or Portugal.
We’ll take it: Argentina, Ghana, Greece.
But FIFA is not worried about the United States. No host team has failed to advance to the second round in World Cup history and FIFA would like South Africa to reach the knockout stage to keep the country’s interest.
Once the quarterfinals come around the World Cup has a life of its own, interest will be high no matter who is playing.
With South Africa in a position to avoid playing the world’s top teams -- the other seven teams in Pot 1 are ranked in the top 10 -- it is likely to be in a group that would include either North Korea or New Zealand from Pot 2, Chile or Uruguay from Pot 3 and, maybe to make it seem somewhat fair, Switzerland or Denmark from Pot 4.
Remember, the draw is everything, and the United States has been hammered more times than gifted since it started qualifying regularly 20 years ago.
A recap:
1990: The U.S. qualified for the first time since 1950 and was considered the weakest team in the field. Not by coincidence, it was placed in a group with host Italy, along with Czechoslovakia and Austria. Record: 0-3.
1994: As host, the U.S. was given the A-1 slot and grouped with mid-level European teams Romania and Switzerland, as well as Colombia, the group favorite. So what happens? The U.S. upsets Colombia, ties Switzerland and loses to Romania and only advances to the second round as one of the top third-place teams. Go figure. Record: 1-1-1.
1998: A cocky American squad gets drawn into the Group of Death, the name given to the toughest bracket. Germany, Yugoslalvia and Iran drop-kick the U.S. out of the tournament and when the dust clears the Americans finish dead last in the 32-team field. Record: 0-3.
2002: Based on the 1998 performance, the U.S. gets no respect and is again placed in a group with the host nation, this time South Korea. Poland and Portugal are there, too. But the Americans are at the top of their game, advance to the knockout stage and beat Mexico in the second round, only to be eliminated by Germany, 1-0, in a game they outplayed the Germans and deserved better. Record: 2-2-1.
