The comment was met with snickers across the world, seen as typical American bravado. After all, in the history of the World Cup, the United States has won just a single game in the knockout phase.
While the likelihood of the Americans actually winning the World Cup remains remote and would rank as perhaps the greatest upset in the sport’s history, there is no denying that things have gone “well.”
The bracket that sits before Team USA is about as favorable as possible. It’s a dream scenario: The Americans are grouped in the weaker side of the event and would avoid any true world powers until at least the semifinals.
The knockout round begins Saturday when the United States meets Ghana, a match in which the Americans are favored. That alone is a surprise.
It is one reason the English betting site betfair.com has dropped the Americans’ chances at winning the Cup from 125-1 to 46-1. That remains a long shot. It’s just not as long as before.
Put it this way. One of these four teams will reach the semifinals: United States, Ghana, Uruguay or South Korea. Heading into the World Cup, very few would have been predicted any of those teams to go so far.
The Americans sport the highest FIFA ranking among that group, although Uruguay is considered the moderate favorite now to reach the semis (19-1 odds now to win the Cup).
For Team USA, this is a far, far easier bracket than the one featuring Germany, England, Argentina and Mexico. That’s where the Americans were expected to find themselves if they hadn’t managed to win its group for the first time since 1930. The United States would be either the underdog or, at most, even (with Mexico) in facing any of those teams.
And let’s remember this about the run — the United States has led for just two minutes in this entire tournament, the shortest amount of any group winner ever. The Americans have been an exciting team to watch. They haven’t been dominant.
If you were to reseed the remaining 16 teams (no matter who grabs the final four spots, determined Friday) the United States would rank around 11th. Yet the rest of its part of the bracket would only feature middle-of-the-road Uruguay. Ghana and South Korea would rank among the weakest remaining teams regardless of Friday’s results.
Contrast that with the group that features powerhouses Argentina, Germany and England, all among the top half dozen or so remaining clubs. Then there is Mexico, which would sit on the cusp of the top 10.
Forget the “bad luck” the Americans dealt with from erroneous referee decisions. The botched save by English keeper Robert Green, allowing for a U.S. tie, was the critical break of this tournament. That blown save was the grandest bit of fortune that began the scenarios which allowed the United States to wind up in the preferred part of the bracket.
The story of the World Cup thus far has been the disintegration of traditional European powers. Both the defending champion (Italy) and runner-up (France) have been knocked out. One of the pre-Cup favorites, Spain, was still on the brink heading into Friday’s game against Chile.
The result has been a flush of new teams into the knockout phase.
If this was the men’s NCAA basketball tournament, the part of the bracket Team USA finds itself in would be a Sweet Sixteen where the top two seeds have been knocked out. All of a sudden, a Final Four run is there for just about anyone’s taking.
And that may be an issue for the Americans. Ghana defeated the United States in the 2006 World Cup, and Uruguay has been playing extremely well this month. Both are also looking at the tournament and seeing the same tantalizing road to the semis.
At that point, Cup favorite Brazil (which would love this draw too) will likely be waiting, although you never know in a one-and-done scenario. The idea that a road to the semifinals could be this “easy” is a stunning development.
Team USA isn’t spouting off, but the confidence surrounding it is palpable. The Americans’ first goal was just to make the knockout round. Now that they are there, the circumstances are impossible to ignore. This whole thing has set up perfectly for them.
“Now it’s a one-off game; anything can happen,” forward Jozy Altidore said Thursday. “We’re playing to play in the final.”
No one laughed at the American this time. There’s a big difference between a long shot and no shot.
